Taking Risks on Your Fantasy Football QB – Matt Ryan and Colt McCoy

We all have the lists that are published by the “experts”. Here’s a typical Top Five QB list in the world of Fantasy Football:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Tom Brady
4. Philip Rivers
5. Michael Vick

Plus or minus, this is what just about everyone has. The next list of five is equally predictable:

6. Peyton Manning (barring injury)
7. Tony Romo
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Schaub
10. Matt Ryan

If everyone simply sets their draft based on the list, then the efficient market holds (see Eugene Fama and the University of Chicago) – to put it simply – when everyone makes decisions based on the same knowledge, risk associated with things such as injuries and fluky bounces of the ball will yield the key performance differentiators.

The way to win big is to take a big risk, and perhaps go down in flames. If all of the above quarterbacks were on your draft board, and it was time to draft a QB, then Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers would be the conventional take, but wouldn’t you rather take a bigger risk for a bigger potential reward?

What about Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons? He has a new receiver in Julio Jones. He has another year under his belt, and he now has some playoff experience. He looks today to be at a stage comparable to where Aaron Rodgers was last year.

Colt McCoy of the Cleveland Browns is rated no better than 20 within the conventional wisdom community. Depending on your league, this guy is going to score some points. Yes, the Browns will depend on the running game a lot, but with a west coast offense you can look at play-action TD’s coming out the wazoo! If you are a Browns fan, Colt McCoy is a no brainer.

Keep in mind that with the addition of Mark Ingram to the New Orleans Saints roster, Drew Brees is going to have a better running game this year  เว็บแทงบอลปลอดภัย ufabet than last, so look for his numbers to be down. Also, the New England Patriots running game will take a step back, which when combined with a weak offensive line, will mean that more people can T-off on Tom Brady, making passing more difficult and potentially leading to a higher risk of injury. Further, at this writing, Peyton Manning is falling below 20 on the list because of his neck and Michael Vick is an injury waiting to happen. Risks abound even with the top five.